Data from HR insights provider Brightmine, shows that the UK’s median basic pay award has returned to three per cent, with most deals falling between two per cent and 4.2 per cent, confirming 2025 as a year defined by subdued and tightly controlled pay growth. After a brief lift last month driven by high-value public-sector settlements, the latest quarter’s figures reveal a reversion to the flat trend that has dominated this year.
Despite isolated areas of stronger public-sector activity, pay restraint continues to shape the wider picture. The Brightmine matched sample analysis shows that more than seven in 10 deals in 2025 were lower than those awarded to the same employees in 2024.
Sheila Attwood, Senior Content Manager, Data and HR Insights at Brightmine comments: “2025 has been a year of limited movement. While public-sector deals delivered a temporary lift to our headline figure earlier in the autumn, the underlying pattern remains one of cautious, contained pay growth. Most organisations are continuing to operate within tight affordability boundaries, which is reflected in the consistent clustering of deals around the three per cent mark.”
Looking into 2026, pay expectations remain centred around a three per cent increase, with employers signalling another year of controlled and moderate awards. The April 2025 rise in national insurance contributions is continuing to influence planning, with many employers anticipating a negative impact on next year’s pay decisions.
Attwood adds: “Unless economic conditions improve meaningfully, most organisations are preparing for another year of tight pay budgets. Early indications suggest that 2026 pay awards could potentially edge lower than 2025’s three per cent threshold as cost pressures continue to weigh on employers.”