2024 could be a pivotal year for UK banking, say Morgan McKinley as funds near their five-year mark post-pandemic and the Government’s plan to unlock £75 million, potentially boosting savings by £11,000 per person. The scenario is helped by the UK standing out among G8 countries due to its political stability, with the government expected to remain in power for the next five years. In addition to this, London is forecast to see a 2 per cent rise in banking vacancies, increasing from 46 per cent to 48 per cent, whereas the rest of England and Wales face a 12 per cent decline.
“Overall, UK inflation has been gradually decreasing. However, as Bank of England’s economist: Rob Elder referenced at one of our recent events, the central bank has been keeping a keen eye on the stubbornly high wage and services inflation.
Since 2022, Risk and Compliance has consistently been the most in-demand area in banking recruitment, and this trend is expected to continue in 2024, with 4,559 vacancies representing 15 per cent of all sector roles, despite a 20 per cent decrease in vacancies. This decline is likely due to increased automation of risk analysis through AI, as many banks adopt new technologies like blockchain for transactions. IT Development & Engineering roles are expected to grow by 9 per cent, reaching nearly 4,000 vacancies as banks integrate these innovations. In contrast, IT management vacancies have fallen by 6 per cent. Overall, the rise in technology driven roles stands in contrast to the 22 per cent decline in commercial banking vacancies, reflecting the sector’s evolving needs.
Greater London is projected to retain the largest share of banking vacancies in 2024, with an estimated 48 per cent, or 14,964 total vacancies, nearly recovering to 2022 levels after a 3 per cent decline from 2022 to 2023. Edinburgh is expected to hold second place with 1,532 vacancies, although both Edinburgh and Glasgow are projected to see significant drops of 20 per cent and 28 per cent., As a result, Scotland’s share of vacancies is likely to fall from 11 per cent to 9 per cent.
In contrast, Northern Ireland and the Southwest are the only regions expected to see growth, with Northern Ireland up 10 per cent and the Southwest 9 per cent. However, Manchester is set for the sharpest decline, dropping by per cent.
“Overall, UK inflation has been gradually decreasing. However, as Bank of England’s economist: Rob Elder referenced at one of our recent events, the central bank has been keeping a keen eye on the stubbornly high wage and services inflation,” notes Ross Sailes – Associate Director – Morgan McKinley.
Recent data has shown that wage inflation is finally subsiding, theoretically paving the way for a number of rate cuts over the coming year. This shift could not only positively impact consumer sentiment but also give a welcome boost to bank balance sheets as their sizeable bond portfolios increase in value. Should this materialise, we could see increased investment in projects, expansion plans and emerging technologies such as automation and AI – developments that would significantly benefit the recruitment market.
“Despite the challenges, there are reasons to be optimistic. The outlook for 2025 points to a gradual recovery, fuelled by London’s continued dominance as Europe’s financial capital, reforms aimed at deregulating the financial industry, and more stable inflation.”
In 2024, investment-focused banks are expected to see significant vacancy growth. Goldman Sachs is forecasted to have an 89 per cent increase, reaching nearly 600 positions, following the opening of its Birmingham branch. Bank of America is expected to lead with a 119 per cent surge, bringing the total to approximately 344 jobs, while JP Morgan Chase will see an 8 per cent rise, with vacancies reaching 2,714.
In contrast, retail-focused banks like NatWest Group and Nationwide Building Society are predicted to face steep declines, with vacancies dropping by 49 per cent and 48 per cent, respectively. However, Santander stands out, with a 3 per cent increase, due to recent structural changes.
